Toward a Multi-Planetary Future - Part 9

Interpersonal Conflict Cascade Modeling for Lunar & Martian Base Personnel

Further analysis utilizing a systems-engineering exercise was done to identifying how conflict could plausibly arise, how it might propagate, and what mechanisms would arrest it in a closed, high-risk environment. Think of this as failure-mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for humans.

The model investigated:

For each individual selected - Determine their
1. Primary Stress Trigger

2. Initial Behavioral Shift

3. Potential Cascade Path

4. Crew-Level Impact if Unchecked

5. Built-In Dampening Mechanisms

After much consideration and the application of all base measures into this model the Crew-Level Synthesis is as follows:

Overall Cascade Characteristics

• No single high-volatility individual

• Plausible cascades would be slow-forming, not explosive

• All major risks have structural dampeners within the selected crews

Net Assessment 🟢 

• This crew configuration is robust against interpersonal failure modes.
• Human conflict is inevitable. Unmanaged conflict is fatal and these crews would be able to manage interpersonal conflicts. 
• These crews are not designed to avoid conflict—but to absorb, process, and resolve it.

Well, there it is, a look at not just the technological aspects of either a lunar or Martian base but also the human factors as well. Base governance is one aspect not addressed here as that subject is vast in scope, must include state and private actors, and most importantly, address how base personnel would need autonomy to be safe and successful.

The topic of governance is addressed in many of my posts on LinkedIn and the Samosata blog I publish.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-clulow-b1a271120/

https://lsamosata.blogspot.com/